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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200209-200211

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
2
0
2
1
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
33
12
64
0
1
1
2
19
34
13
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
33
0
33
0
33
33
67
0
67
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
50
18
97
0
2
2
3
29
52
20
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.515
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.50 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.88 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.273
true Heidke skill score: 0.400 true Heidke skill score: 0.019
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.273
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.016
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.508 0.071
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.001 0.045
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.971 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.484 0.500
samples: 3 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 4.55 %coverage: 100.00