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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200210-200212

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
36
8
65
0
0
1
1
21
36
9
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
50
0
50
0
0
50
50
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
32
55
12
98
0
0
2
2
32
55
14
100

hitrate: 1.000 hitrate: 0.561
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.81 0.11
Heidke skill score: 1.000 Heidke skill score: 0.341
true Heidke skill score: 1.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.046
Kuipers skill score: 1.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.341
true Kuipers skill score: 1.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.037
threat score:
0.000 1.000 1.000
threat score:
0.000 0.554 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.000 1.000 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.018 0.097
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.446 0.000
samples: 2 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 3.03 %coverage: 100.00