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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200211-200301

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
8
27
62
2
0
2
4
29
8
29
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
0
50
100
50
0
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
41
12
41
94
3
0
3
6
44
12
44
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.152
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 7.75 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.273
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.013
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.273
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.018
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.129 0.065
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.009 0.008
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.069
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.871 0.500
samples: 4 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 6.06 %coverage: 100.00