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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
6
1
0
2
3
1
0
1
2
4
2
5
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
6
8
16
25
49
1
0
1
2
11
18
28
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
18
18
55
9
0
18
27
9
0
9
18
36
18
45
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
4
11
14
28
44
86
2
0
2
4
19
32
49
100

hitrate: 0.273 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 1.50 0.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.55 2.72 0.07
Heidke skill score: -0.091 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: -0.086 true Heidke skill score: 0.035
Kuipers skill score: -0.091 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: -0.092 true Kuipers skill score: 0.039
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.167
threat score:
0.133 0.314 0.034
equitable threat score:
-0.031 -0.122 0.018
equitable threat score:
0.061 0.015 0.001
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.200
probability of detection:
0.182 0.889 0.036
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.673 0.500
samples: 11 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 19.30 %coverage: 100.00