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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
3
6
1
3
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
15
11
24
50
2
0
1
3
19
12
26
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
10
10
40
20
0
10
30
20
0
10
30
60
10
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
2
7
26
19
42
88
4
0
2
5
33
21
46
100

hitrate: 0.300 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 3.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.21 4.17 0.12
Heidke skill score: -0.050 Heidke skill score: -0.132
true Heidke skill score: -0.094 true Heidke skill score: 0.018
Kuipers skill score: -0.050 Kuipers skill score: -0.132
true Kuipers skill score: -0.111 true Kuipers skill score: 0.021
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.095 0.216 0.036
equitable threat score:
-0.071 -0.081 0.024
equitable threat score:
0.034 0.012 -0.014
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.105 0.917 0.038
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.780 0.667
samples: 10 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 17.54 %coverage: 100.00