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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199805-199807

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
2
5
1
0
1
2
3
0
6
9
6
1
9
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
2
5
8
16
19
43
3
0
6
9
13
17
27
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
6
13
31
6
0
6
13
19
0
38
56
38
6
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
4
9
14
28
33
75
5
0
11
16
23
30
47
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.421
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.83 2.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 2.53 0.33
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.132
true Heidke skill score: 0.105 true Heidke skill score: 0.149
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.132
true Kuipers skill score: 0.109 true Kuipers skill score: 0.160
threat score:
0.222 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.125 0.364 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.018 -0.043 0.135
equitable threat score:
0.058 0.102 0.067
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.154 0.941 0.222
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 1.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.628 0.333
samples: 16 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 28.07 %coverage: 100.00