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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806-199808

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
2
0
1
3
0
1
0
1
2
1
3
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
13
19
21
53
0
1
0
1
13
20
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
33
33
33
0
17
50
0
17
0
17
33
17
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
23
34
38
95
0
2
0
2
23
36
41
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 3.00 0.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 2.65 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: -0.385 true Heidke skill score: -0.022
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: -0.455 true Kuipers skill score: -0.022
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.352 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.200 -0.143 -0.143
equitable threat score:
-0.032 0.002 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.950 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.642 1.000
samples: 6 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 10.71 %coverage: 100.00