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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199807-199809

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
3
6
2
0
0
2
0
1
1
2
4
2
4
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
3
6
18
12
18
48
0
1
1
2
20
14
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
10
30
60
20
0
0
20
0
10
10
20
40
20
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
5
11
32
21
32
86
0
2
2
4
36
25
39
100

hitrate: 0.300 hitrate: 0.268
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 1.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.30 3.43 0.09
Heidke skill score: -0.050 Heidke skill score: -0.098
true Heidke skill score: -0.094 true Heidke skill score: 0.002
Kuipers skill score: -0.050 Kuipers skill score: -0.098
true Kuipers skill score: -0.094 true Kuipers skill score: 0.002
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.083 0.240 0.043
equitable threat score:
-0.071 -0.111 0.048
equitable threat score:
-0.007 0.000 0.010
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.250
probability of detection:
0.100 0.857 0.045
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.750 0.500
samples: 10 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 17.86 %coverage: 100.00