CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809-199811

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
0
1
1
2
0
4
2
6
1
5
4
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
10
16
23
49
0
4
2
6
11
20
26
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
0
10
20
0
10
10
20
0
40
20
60
10
50
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
18
28
40
86
0
7
4
11
19
35
46
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.40 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 2.45 0.23
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.062 true Heidke skill score: -0.036
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.069 true Kuipers skill score: -0.037
threat score:
0.500 0.167 0.250
threat score:
0.083 0.302 0.067
equitable threat score:
0.444 0.000 -0.071
equitable threat score:
0.053 -0.033 -0.027
probability of detection:
1.000 0.200 0.500
probability of detection:
0.091 0.800 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.500 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.673 0.667
samples: 10 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 17.54 %coverage: 100.00