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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
3
3
0
2
3
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
14
20
19
53
0
0
3
3
14
21
22
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
20
0
20
0
20
0
20
0
0
60
60
0
40
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
25
35
33
93
0
0
5
5
25
37
39
100

hitrate: 0.800 hitrate: 0.404
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.50 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 2.52 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.700 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.643 true Heidke skill score: 0.057
Kuipers skill score: 0.700 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.750 true Kuipers skill score: 0.055
threat score:
0.000 0.500 1.000
threat score:
0.000 0.370 0.136
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.375 1.000
equitable threat score:
-0.017 0.014 0.088
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.952 0.136
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.623 0.000
samples: 5 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 8.77 %coverage: 100.00