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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
1
1
4
6
2
1
0
3
3
3
5
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
20
18
20
58
2
1
0
3
22
20
21
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
9
18
9
9
36
55
18
9
0
27
27
27
45
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
3
32
29
32
92
3
2
0
5
35
32
33
100

hitrate: 0.091 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 2.00 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 2.90 0.14
Heidke skill score: -0.364 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.341 true Heidke skill score: -0.049
Kuipers skill score: -0.364 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.359 true Kuipers skill score: -0.050
threat score:
0.000 0.125 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.300 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.122 -0.100 -0.205
equitable threat score:
-0.030 -0.010 -0.043
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.900 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.833 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.690 1.000
samples: 11 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 17.46 %coverage: 100.00