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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
2
2
3
1
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
21
23
13
57
0
1
1
2
22
26
14
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
33
0
50
17
0
0
17
0
17
17
33
33
50
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
0
5
34
37
21
92
0
2
2
3
35
42
23
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.403
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.33 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.19 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.040 true Heidke skill score: -0.011
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.045 true Kuipers skill score: -0.010
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.042 0.383 0.067
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.143 0.400
equitable threat score:
-0.003 -0.025 0.038
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.045 0.885 0.071
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.596 0.500
samples: 6 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 9.68 %coverage: 100.00