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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903-199905

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
1
2
0
3
3
0
3
6
5
4
5
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
20
16
16
52
3
0
3
6
24
18
21
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
14
14
36
7
14
0
21
21
0
21
43
36
29
36
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
3
8
32
25
25
83
5
0
5
10
38
29
33
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.317
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.75 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.21 2.89 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: -0.024
true Heidke skill score: 0.132 true Heidke skill score: 0.028
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: -0.024
true Kuipers skill score: 0.131 true Kuipers skill score: 0.030
threat score:
0.111 0.400 0.375
threat score:
0.036 0.296 0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.109 0.276 0.146
equitable threat score:
-0.035 0.029 0.045
probability of detection:
0.200 0.500 0.600
probability of detection:
0.042 0.889 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.333 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.692 0.500
samples: 14 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 22.22 %coverage: 100.00