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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199904-199906

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
1
3
0
1
2
3
3
1
2
6
5
2
5
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
1
3
12
18
24
54
3
1
2
6
17
19
27
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
0
8
25
0
8
17
25
25
8
17
50
42
17
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
2
5
19
29
38
86
5
2
3
10
27
30
43
100

hitrate: 0.417 hitrate: 0.349
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 1.50 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 2.84 0.22
Heidke skill score: 0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.024
true Heidke skill score: 0.097 true Heidke skill score: 0.054
Kuipers skill score: 0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.024
true Kuipers skill score: 0.100 true Kuipers skill score: 0.057
threat score:
0.333 0.250 0.222
threat score:
0.111 0.327 0.065
equitable threat score:
0.158 0.143 -0.077
equitable threat score:
0.069 0.044 -0.020
probability of detection:
0.400 0.500 0.400
probability of detection:
0.118 0.947 0.074
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.667 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.667 0.667
samples: 12 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 19.05 %coverage: 100.00