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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199904-199906

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
0
1
0
1
0
0
2
2
1
2
2
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
16
18
25
59
0
0
2
2
17
19
27
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
20
0
40
0
20
0
20
0
0
40
40
20
40
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
3
25
29
40
94
0
0
3
3
27
30
43
100

hitrate: 0.800 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.50 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 3.11 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.700 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.706 true Heidke skill score: 0.041
Kuipers skill score: 0.700 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.750 true Kuipers skill score: 0.044
threat score:
0.500 0.500 1.000
threat score:
0.056 0.300 0.074
equitable threat score:
0.375 0.375 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.026 0.005 0.044
probability of detection:
1.000 0.500 1.000
probability of detection:
0.059 0.947 0.074
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.695 0.000
samples: 5 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 7.94 %coverage: 100.00