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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199907-199909

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
0
1
1
2
1
2
1
4
1
5
3
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
21
15
20
56
1
2
1
4
22
19
22
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
22
11
33
0
11
11
22
11
22
11
44
11
56
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
2
5
33
24
32
89
2
3
2
6
35
30
35
100

hitrate: 0.222 hitrate: 0.254
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.40 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.95 0.18
Heidke skill score: -0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.119
true Heidke skill score: -0.125 true Heidke skill score: -0.076
Kuipers skill score: -0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.119
true Kuipers skill score: -0.152 true Kuipers skill score: -0.080
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.167
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.040
equitable threat score:
-0.091 -0.023 -0.071
equitable threat score:
-0.044 -0.044 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.200 0.333
probability of detection:
0.000 0.789 0.045
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.732 0.750
samples: 9 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00