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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908-199910

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
3
5
1
0
0
1
1
3
1
5
4
3
4
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
3
5
23
14
16
53
1
3
1
5
26
17
20
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
0
27
45
9
0
0
9
9
27
9
45
36
27
36
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
5
8
37
22
25
84
2
5
2
8
41
27
32
100

hitrate: 0.273 hitrate: 0.270
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.25 0.33 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.19 3.12 0.25
Heidke skill score: -0.091 Heidke skill score: -0.095
true Heidke skill score: -0.128 true Heidke skill score: -0.021
Kuipers skill score: -0.091 Kuipers skill score: -0.095
true Kuipers skill score: -0.125 true Kuipers skill score: -0.023
threat score:
0.286 0.000 0.125
threat score:
0.069 0.250 0.042
equitable threat score:
0.035 -0.073 -0.132
equitable threat score:
-0.002 -0.007 -0.026
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.250
probability of detection:
0.077 0.824 0.050
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 1.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.736 0.800
samples: 11 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 17.46 %coverage: 100.00