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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199911-200001

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
2
0
8
1
1
0
2
1
1
0
2
8
4
0
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
2
0
8
36
15
2
53
1
1
0
2
43
18
2
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
17
0
67
8
8
0
17
8
8
0
17
67
33
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
3
0
13
57
24
3
84
2
2
0
3
68
29
3
100

hitrate: 0.583 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.50 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.19 2.94 1.00
Heidke skill score: 0.375 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.167 true Heidke skill score: 0.008
Kuipers skill score: 0.375 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.187 true Kuipers skill score: 0.012
threat score:
0.600 0.200 0.000
threat score:
0.133 0.268 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.143 0.077 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.014 -0.003 -0.016
probability of detection:
0.750 0.250 0.000
probability of detection:
0.140 0.833 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.500 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.717 1.000
samples: 12 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 19.05 %coverage: 100.00