CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199912-200002

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
1
4
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
3
2
4
2
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
1
4
28
19
9
56
1
1
1
3
30
22
11
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
25
13
50
0
13
0
13
13
13
13
38
25
50
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
2
6
44
30
14
89
2
2
2
5
48
35
17
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.25 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.13 2.55 0.27
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.130 true Heidke skill score: -0.024
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.150 true Kuipers skill score: -0.025
threat score:
0.200 0.250 0.250
threat score:
0.030 0.322 0.077
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.143 0.077
equitable threat score:
-0.029 -0.014 0.038
probability of detection:
0.500 0.250 0.500
probability of detection:
0.033 0.864 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.661 0.667
samples: 8 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 12.70 %coverage: 100.00