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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200004-200006

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
3
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
20
14
28
62
0
1
0
1
20
17
28
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
50
0
50
0
0
25
25
0
25
0
25
0
75
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
31
22
43
95
0
2
0
2
31
26
43
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.215
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.33 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 3.65 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.177
true Heidke skill score: -0.333 true Heidke skill score: -0.068
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.177
true Kuipers skill score: -0.667 true Kuipers skill score: -0.077
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.215 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.231 -0.143
equitable threat score:
-0.029 -0.045 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.824 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.774 1.000
samples: 4 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 6.15 %coverage: 100.00