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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200007-200009

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
2
2
1
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
28
22
14
64
1
1
0
2
29
23
15
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
25
25
25
0
0
25
25
25
0
50
50
25
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
42
33
21
96
1
1
0
3
43
34
22
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.328
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 2.78 0.13
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.007
true Heidke skill score: -0.455 true Heidke skill score: -0.019
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.007
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: -0.020
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.338 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.200 -0.143 -0.200
equitable threat score:
-0.015 0.001 -0.027
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.957 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.656 1.000
samples: 4 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 5.97 %coverage: 100.00