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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200010-200012

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
2
0
1
0
1
1
2
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
24
21
20
65
0
1
0
1
24
22
21
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
25
25
25
25
0
50
0
25
0
25
25
50
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
36
31
30
97
0
1
0
1
36
33
31
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.313
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.04 2.95 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.030
true Heidke skill score: -0.200 true Heidke skill score: -0.023
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.030
true Kuipers skill score: -0.200 true Kuipers skill score: -0.023
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.318 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.143 0.000 -0.143
equitable threat score:
-0.015 -0.008 -0.014
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.955 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.677 1.000
samples: 4 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 5.97 %coverage: 100.00