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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200011-200101

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
1
3
1
0
1
2
0
1
0
1
3
1
2
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
1
3
26
22
15
63
0
1
0
1
28
23
16
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
0
17
50
17
0
17
33
0
17
0
17
50
17
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
1
4
39
33
22
94
0
1
0
1
42
34
24
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.358
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 2.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 2.74 0.06
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.037
true Heidke skill score: -0.043 true Heidke skill score: 0.020
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.037
true Kuipers skill score: -0.045 true Kuipers skill score: 0.020
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.069 0.344 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.200 -0.125 -0.125
equitable threat score:
0.027 0.009 -0.014
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.071 0.957 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.651 1.000
samples: 6 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 8.96 %coverage: 100.00