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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200012-200102

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
2
1
0
2
3
3
0
3
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
28
23
12
63
1
0
2
3
30
23
14
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
0
0
17
17
0
17
33
17
0
33
50
50
0
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
42
34
18
94
1
0
3
4
45
34
21
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.388
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 -- 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 2.74 0.21
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.082
true Heidke skill score: 0.250 true Heidke skill score: 0.074
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.082
true Kuipers skill score: 0.333 true Kuipers skill score: 0.077
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.033 0.365 0.133
equitable threat score:
0.200 0.000 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.019 0.033 0.096
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.033 1.000 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.635 0.333
samples: 6 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 8.96 %coverage: 100.00