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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200103-200105

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
2
1
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
17
31
16
64
2
0
0
2
19
32
16
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
33
0
33
0
0
0
0
67
0
0
67
67
33
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
25
46
24
96
3
0
0
3
28
48
24
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.463
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.00 0.12
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.194
true Heidke skill score: -0.286 true Heidke skill score: -0.009
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.194
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: -0.008
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.477 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.286 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.014 0.013 -0.027
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.969 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.516 1.000
samples: 3 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 4.48 %coverage: 100.00