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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200104-200106

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
18
24
21
63
0
0
0
0
18
26
22
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
67
33
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
67
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
2
5
27
36
32
95
0
0
0
0
27
39
33
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.364
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.17 2.42 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.045
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.041
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.045
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.038
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.369 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.041 -0.020 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.923 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.619 0.000
samples: 3 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 4.55 %coverage: 100.00