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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200105-200107

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
3
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
19
22
22
63
1
0
0
1
20
24
22
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
50
0
50
0
25
0
25
25
0
0
25
25
75
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
29
33
33
95
2
0
0
2
30
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.33 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.62 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: -0.091 true Heidke skill score: -0.044
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: -0.167 true Kuipers skill score: -0.042
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.338 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.200 0.111 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.028 -0.022 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.917 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.651 1.000
samples: 4 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 6.06 %coverage: 100.00