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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200107-200109

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
2
0
3
0
1
0
1
1
3
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
26
20
19
65
0
1
0
1
26
21
19
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
50
0
75
0
25
0
25
25
75
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
39
30
29
98
0
2
0
2
39
32
29
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.303
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.10 0.05
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: -0.143 true Heidke skill score: -0.022
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: -0.167 true Kuipers skill score: -0.022
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.303 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.143 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.015 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.952 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.333 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.692 1.000
samples: 4 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 6.06 %coverage: 100.00