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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200108-200110

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
1
0
0
1
2
1
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
25
15
65
1
0
0
1
26
25
15
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
33
33
0
67
33
0
0
33
67
33
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
38
38
23
98
2
0
0
2
39
38
23
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.379
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.60 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.068
true Heidke skill score: 0.143 true Heidke skill score: 0.004
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.068
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.004
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.385 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.009 -0.014
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.615 1.000
samples: 3 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 4.55 %coverage: 100.00