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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200203-200205

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
1
5
3
1
0
4
0
0
0
0
5
3
1
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
1
5
32
17
11
60
0
0
0
0
34
19
12
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
22
11
56
33
11
0
44
0
0
0
0
56
33
11
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
2
8
49
26
17
92
0
0
0
0
52
29
18
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.292
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.33 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 3.16 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.062
true Heidke skill score: -0.227 true Heidke skill score: -0.026
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.062
true Kuipers skill score: -0.217 true Kuipers skill score: -0.029
threat score:
0.250 0.167 0.000
threat score:
0.054 0.274 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.149 -0.071 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.018 -0.012 0.000
probability of detection:
0.400 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.059 0.895 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.750 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.717 0.000
samples: 9 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 13.85 %coverage: 100.00