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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200204-200206

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Screening multiple regression Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
2
1
0
3
0
0
1
1
3
1
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
30
19
15
64
0
0
1
1
31
19
16
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
0
0
20
40
20
0
60
0
0
20
20
60
20
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
45
29
23
97
0
0
2
2
47
29
24
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.318
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 3.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 3.37 0.06
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: -0.023
true Heidke skill score: 0.444 true Heidke skill score: 0.040
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: -0.023
true Kuipers skill score: 0.571 true Kuipers skill score: 0.044
threat score:
0.333 0.333 1.000
threat score:
0.032 0.297 0.062
equitable threat score:
0.167 0.167 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.017 0.013 0.048
probability of detection:
0.333 1.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.032 1.000 0.062
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.703 0.000
samples: 5 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 7.58 %coverage: 100.00