Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
300 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 
 
 
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2025 
 
The update to the July 2025 temperature and precipitation outlooks is based on 
the latest evaluation of boundary conditions that include near-coastal sea 
surface temperatures (SSTs) and surface moisture changes in both the soil and 
vegetation. The latest dynamical model guidance for the short-, medium-, 
extended- and subseasonal-range is utilized to adjust the mid-month outlook as 
well as monthly integrated forecasts from the CFS and other available S2S 
models. 
 
The most recent model guidance across time scales maintains high odds for 
monthly mean above-normal temperatures for much of the western contiguous U.S. 
Substantially below-normal near coast SSTs leads to a forecast of 
"Equal-Chances" or (EC) for the immediate near coastal areas of California. 
Indications at the end of the month for a robust monsoon circulation and 
potential heavy rainfall during periods of the first two weeks of July. This 
has led to the lowering the probabilities of above-normal temperatures somewhat 
for the Southwest. Model guidance supports slight increases in chances for 
above-normal temperatures for the north-central U.S., Great Lakes, Northeast 
and mid-Atlantic. 
 
Below- and near-normal precipitation along with extreme heat in many areas 
during the last 7-10 days in the central Plains, central Mississippi Valley, 
mid-south and Southeast has substantially depleted the large anomalies of 
enhanced surface wetness in the region via both soil evaporation and 
transpiration. With these changes along with the dynamical model guidance 
consistent with a more dry and likely warmer surface, the outlook now favors 
(slightly tilted) above-normal temperatures where EC was previously forecast. 
 
Little or no rainfall is forecast the next 7 days and with potential extreme 
heat returning to Texas the odds for above-normal temperatures for much of 
Texas are increased from the mid-June outlook. 
 
Only slight changes are made for the state of Alaska. These include the removal 
of favored above-normal temperatures for Southeast Alaska, the addition of 
elevated odds for above-normal temperatures for the northwest part of the state 
and a shift southward of favored below-normal temperatures for the southwest 
coast. 
 
For the precipitation outlook, forecast uncertainty has increased with the 
update at the end of the month, which is somewhat unusual. High variability in 
dynamical model guidance predictions of monthly total precipitation amounts is 
evident for much of CONUS then at mid-month - especially for the central CONUS. 
With this the cas e, the one highlighted area of favored below-normal 
precipitation is separated into regions where the strongest signals  remain and 
are most consistent with model guidance and/or long-term precipitation trends . 
The areas include the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, parts of the 
central Plains and south Texas. 
 
The above-normal precipitation region along the eastern seaboard remains 
largely unchanged except for EC now forecast along the immediate Atlantic 
coastal areas from Florida to North Carolina and less west side coverage. As 
noted above, the potential for an enhanced Southwest monsoon during periods of 
the first half of July support the forecast of favored above-normal 
precipitation for parts of Arizona and New Mexico. For Alaska, the outlook 
remains basically unchanged. 
 
***************************************************************************** 
****** Previous discussion from mid-month release ****** 
 
***************************************************************************** 
 
The July 2025 temperature and precipitation outlooks are primarily based on a 
combination of dynamical model guidance [both Week 3-4 and integrated monthly 
(North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), Copernicus multi-model ensemble 
system (C3S))], statistical forecast guidance, and current surface conditions. 
Although there has been considerable coherent subseasonal tropical variability 
in the form of atmospheric Kelvin wave activity, the Madden-Julian Oscillation 
(MJO) has weakened substantially from its state in late May and early June. 
Moreover, forecasts of the MJO over the next few weeks do not predict any 
clear, reliable strengthening of the signal and so the MJO does not play a role 
in preparation of the July outlooks. Current land surface states such as 
anomalous soil moisture did contribute considerably to the outlooks for the 
upcoming month. 
 
The temperature outlook favors above-normal monthly mean temperatures for the 
western half of the contiguous U.S. as well as eastward across the northern 
Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Northeast. Above-normal 
temperatures are also favored along the Gulf coast, including all of Florida, 
and for Southeast Alaska. Probabilities are greatest for the western U.S. where 
warmer than normal conditions are overwhelmingly favored by both dynamical and 
statistical model guidance, long-term positive temperature trends , and drier 
than normal surface conditions in many areas. The odds for above-normal 
temperatures across the northern tier of the U.S. from the Plains to the 
Northeast are lower due to somewhat less agreement in model guidance and 
varying surface conditions. 
 
Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and some forecast tools 
favor a slight tilt toward above-normal temperatures for the Gulf coast and 
Florida. 
 
Ocean surface temperatures and potential weak ridging in dynamical model 
guidance elevates odds slightly for warmer than normal temperatures in 
proximity to Southeast Alaska. Alternatively, forecast troughing during the 
first half of July and cooler than normal SSTs in the Bering Sea favors an area 
of below-normal temperatures for a small region in Southwest Mainland Alaska. 
 
A large area of quite wetter than normal surface conditions from frequent and 
heavy precipitation events this late winter and spring were observed from the 
south-central Plains eastward to the Atlantic seaboard. This is likely to 
offset, to some degree, periods of warmer than normal conditions during July 
and interject considerable uncertainty for the eventual July monthly mean 
temperatures. So a forecast for "Equal-Chances" (EC) of either of the three 
categories is forecast from the Plains eastward across the mid-South, Tennessee 
Valley, lower Ohio Valley and Carolinas. 
 
For precipitation, both dynamical and statistical model guidance, long-term 
negative precipitation trends , in some areas, and drier than normal surface 
conditions support elevated odds for below-normal July monthly total 
precipitation amounts for the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies and the 
northern and central Plains. The most likely area for drier than normal 
conditions is for parts of Montana, Idaho and Wyoming. 
 
Forecast troughing during the first half of July centered in the Bering Sea 
supports elevated odds for above-normal precipitation for much of western 
Mainland Alaska. The majority of NMME and C3S monthly precipitation forecasts 
are consistent with this wet signal. 
 
Long-term positive precipitation trends  and NMME and C3S monthly dynamical 
model guidance favor above-normal precipitation for the Southeast, Ohio Valley, 
mid-Atlantic and much of the Northeast. Probabilities are modest overall for 
this region. 
 
Large variability from both dynamical and statistical model guidance and quite 
unusual late Spring temperature and precipitation conditions, makes the 
forecast for the Southwest monsoon region highly uncertain. Given this, the 
most appropriate forecast in this area for July 2025 is EC as either of the 
three categories are equally likely given the above information at this point 
in mid-June. 
 
FORECASTER: Jon Gottschalck 
 
The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climate reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
The next monthly outlook...for Aug ... will be issued on Thu Jul 17 2025 
 
These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period. 
$$