Forecast Forum

The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFSv2) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b.  Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.   Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8.  Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F9.  Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F10, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

 

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 

Outlook:

 

La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (59% chance during June-August 2022), with a 50-55% chance through the fall.

 

Discussion:  

 

During March 2022, La Niña continued with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18).  For the monthly average, all of the Niño index regions were between -0.7C and -0.9C (Table T2).  Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180-100W and 0-300m depth) decreased and were negative the entire month due to the expansion of below-average temperatures from the surface to 200 meters depth in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T17).  For the monthly average, low-level easterly wind anomalies prevailed across the western and central Pacific, and upper-level westerly wind anomalies remained over the east-central Pacific (Fig. T20 & T21).  Suppressed convection remained significant around the Date Line and was enhanced over the Philippines and Southeast Asia (Fig. T25).  Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continuation of La Niña.

The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere summer (Figs. F1-F12).  This month, the forecaster consensus predicts Niño-3.4 index values to weaken into the summer but remain below the threshold of La Niña (Niño-3.4 values equal to or less than -0.5C).  The change in the consensus forecast to slightly favoring the continuation of La Nina is primarily based on recent model runs from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the persistence of atmosphere-ocean coupling, which remains fairly strong for this time of year.  While La Niña is slightly favored through the fall, there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty, given the combined 45-50% chance for ENSO-neutral or El Niño from July-September onwards.  In summary, La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (59% chance during June-August 2022), with a 50-55% chance through the fall.

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).