Forecast Forum
The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1
and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the
Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System
Model (CFSv2) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b. Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et
al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5
and F6. Predictions from the latest
version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27,
2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8. Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER
statistical model (Knaff and Landsea
1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig.
F9. Niņo 3.4 predictions are
summarized in Fig. F10, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction
Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
skill.
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niņa Advisory
Outlook:
La
Niņa is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niņa decreasing
into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (60% chance in July-September 2022)
before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022
(62-66% chance).
Discussion:
During June, below-average sea surface temperatures
(SSTs) weakened across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean
with SSTs returning to near-average in the east-central Pacific (Fig. T18).
The monthly Niņo index values ranged from -0.6C to -1.4C (Table T2). Subsurface
temperatures anomalies averaged between 180-100W and 0-300m depth were weakly
positive in June. Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted near the
surface to ~75m depth in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with
above-average temperatures at depth (~100 to 200m) in the western and central
Pacific Ocean (Fig. T17). Low-level easterly wind anomalies
prevailed in the western and central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level
westerly wind anomalies continued over most of the equatorial Pacific (Figs. T20
& T21). Convection remained
suppressed over the western and central Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. T25).
Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system was consistent with La Niņa
conditions.
The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niņo-3.4
SST index now forecasts La Niņa to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter
2022-23 (Figs. F1-F12). The forecaster
consensus also predicts La Niņa to persist during the remainder of 2022, with
odds for La Niņa remaining at 60% or greater through early winter. Lowest odds occur during the next few months
with a 60% chance of La Niņa and a 39% chance of ENSO-neutral during
July-September 2022. Subsequently,
chances of La Niņa increase slightly during the fall and early winter. In
summary, La Niņa is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niņa
decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (60% chance in
July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and
early winter 2022 (62-66% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the
chances in each 3-month period).
Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions
are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El
Niņo/La Niņa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).