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About the Forecast Forum
Forecast Forum
The
canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific
(Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192-196; Barnston and
Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316-1345), is shown in Figs.
F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of
the
Climate
Prediction
Center
. The predictions from the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are
presented in Figs. F3 and F4. Predictions
from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849-871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.
Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys.
Res. Let., 27, 2585-2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and
F8.
Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993:
J. Climate, 6, 1067-1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and
F10.
Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model
(Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6, 1545-1566) are shown in
Fig. F11. Predictions from
the ENSO-CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633-652) are shown in Fig. F12.
Niņo 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F13, provided by the
Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The
CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of
this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.
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