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Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected during
the next 3-6 months.
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased throughout the eastern equatorial Pacific
during July (Fig. 1, bottom). By early August, equatorial
SSTs were near average in most areas between
180°W and the South American coast, while positive anomalies persisted
between Indonesia and 180°W (Fig. 1, top). The decrease in SST anomalies in the eastern
equatorial Pacific during July was reflected by a decrease in
the SST departures in the Niņo 3, Niņo 3.4, and Niņo 4 regions (Fig.
2). By the end of July the patterns of tropical convection, atmospheric
circulation, SST and subsurface ocean temperatures were near average,
indicating ENSO-neutral conditions.
The large range (weak La Niņa to
weak El Niņo) in the statistical and coupled model forecasts (Fig.
3)
indicates considerable uncertainty. However, current conditions and recent
trends support the continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions for the next 3-6
months.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of NOAA and its funded institutions. Weekly updates for
SST, 850-hPa wind, OLR and features of the equatorial subsurface thermal structure are available on the Climate
Prediction Center web page at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov (Weekly Update). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niņo/La Niņa are updated monthly in the
Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate
Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 September 2005. To receive
an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail
message: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
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