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HOME > Expert Assessments > ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
issued by
July 6, 2006

Spanish Version (Español -- Courtesy of INFOCLIMA, Peru)

Weekly ENSO Update (PDF, PPT) - updated Mondays

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to prevail during the next 3 months.

The current patterns of anomalous ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific. Positive SST anomalies expanded eastward during June 2006, with SST anomalies greater than +0.5C observed in most of the equatorial Pacific between 130ºE and 140ºW (Fig. 1). As a result, positive SST anomalies were observed in both the Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 regions, while anomalies remained near zero in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Niño 3 and Niño 1+2 regions) (Fig. 2). Low-level (850-hPa) and upper-level (200-hPa) winds over the tropical Pacific were near average during the month. Beginning in February the basin-wide upper ocean heat content increased, and since early April positive anomalies have been observed (Fig. 3).

Most of the statistical and coupled models predict slightly positive SST anomalies (ENSO-neutral to weak El Niño) in the Niño 3.4 region through the end of 2006 (Fig. 4).  These forecasts are consistent with the recent build up in upper-ocean heat content along the equator (Fig. 3). Since the low-level easterlies have been near average, it seems likely that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue at least for the next three months. However, the spread of the forecasts (ENSO-neutral to El Niño) indicates considerable uncertainty in the outlook for late 2006 and early 2007.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of NOAA and its funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly  are available on the Climate Prediction Center website  (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 August 2006. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message:

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Page last modified: January 12, 2006
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