Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center

CPC Search
Expert Assessments
   ENSO Diagnostic
     Discussion Archive

About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

HOME > Expert Assessments > ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
issued by
June 8, 2006

Spanish Version (Español -- Courtesy of INFOCLIMA, Peru)

Weekly ENSO Update (PDF, PPT) - updated Mondays

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to prevail during the next 3 months.

The current patterns of anomalous ocean temperatures are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific. During May 2006 SSTs were near average at most locations between the date line (180º) and 90ºW (Fig. 1), which is reflected in the near zero departures observed in all of the Niño regions (Fig. 2). During the month above-average precipitation (negative OLR anomalies, Fig. 3, top panel) was observed over portions of Indonesia and extreme northeastern Australia, while below-average precipitation (positive OLR anomalies) was observed over most of the equatorial Pacific. Low-level (850-hPa) and upper-level (200-hPa) winds over the tropical Pacific were near average during the month (Fig. 3, middle and bottom panels). Beginning in February the basin-wide upper ocean heat content increased, and since early April positive anomalies have been observed (Fig. 4). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features indicate ENSO-neutral conditions.

Most of the statistical and coupled models predict ENSO-neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific through the end of 2006 (Fig. 5). However, the spread of these forecasts (weak La Niña to weak El Niño) indicates considerable uncertainty in the outlook for the last half of the year.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of NOAA and its funded institutions. Weekly updates for SST, 850-hPa wind, OLR and features of the equatorial subsurface thermal structure are available on the Climate Prediction Center web page at (Weekly Update). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 6 July 2006. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message:

Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page last modified: January 12, 2006
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities