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HOME > Expert Assessments > ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
issued by
September 8, 2005
Spanish Version (Español -- Courtesy of INFOCLIMA, Peru)

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected during the next 3-6 months.

By early September, equatorial SSTs were near average in most areas between 180°W and the South American coast (Fig. 1). The SST departures in the Niņo 3, Niņo 3.4, and Niņo 1+2 regions were near zero, while positive departures (+0.4°C) persisted in the Niņo 4 region (Fig. 2). The general decrease in surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, observed during the last three months, has been accompanied by stronger-than-average easterly winds (Fig. 3) and near-average convection over the central equatorial Pacific.

The large spread of the most recent statistical and coupled model forecasts (weak La Niņa to weak El Niņo) indicates considerable uncertainty (Fig. 4). However, current conditions and recent observed trends support a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions for the next 3-6 months.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of NOAA and its funded institutions. Weekly updates for SST, 850-hPa wind, OLR and features of the equatorial subsurface thermal structure are available on the Climate Prediction Center web page at (Weekly Update). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niņo/La Niņa are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 6 October 2005. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message:

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Page last modified: September 8, 2005
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