PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EST THU JAN 17 2019 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FEBRUARY 2019 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES WERE AROUND ZERO DEGREE C TO POSITIVE ONE-HALF DEGREE C NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE LAST 4 WEEKS. FOR JANUARY 2018 THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER 2018, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 51.96 INCHES (140 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 16.93 INCHES (99 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 21.67 INCHES (122 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 174.97 INCHES (138 PERCENT OF NORMAL) THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL SSTS AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR FEBRUARY 2019. THIS INCREASES THE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII IN FEBRUARY 2019. MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING FEBRUARY 2019, WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW-FREQUENCY STATE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A45 71.4 0.5 B55 5.0 8.4 11.1 KAHULUI A45 71.9 0.6 B55 0.9 1.1 1.8 HONOLULU A45 73.3 0.5 B55 0.7 1.0 1.4 LIHUE A45 71.7 0.6 B55 1.3 1.8 4.0 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FMA 2019 - FMA 2020 REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS AND ALASKA FOR A DISCUSSION OF THE ENSO OUTLOOK AND OTHER CLIMATE CONDITIONS RELEVANT TO THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK, INCLUDING DETAILS ON THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE PERSISTED WHILE DECREASING IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN，WHILE NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE EXPANDED BETWEEN 90-110W. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED WEST OF THE DATE LINE AND SUPPRESSED EAST OF THE DATE LINE, WHILE LOW-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES WERE NEAR AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN, AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE ANOMALOUS WESTERLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST MODELS INDICATE PROBABLE DEVELOPMENT OF EL NINO WITH PROBABILITIES NEAR 65% FOR CONTINUATION INTO NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING 2019. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII FROM FMA TO JAS 2019 DUE TO PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ACCORDING TO STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR ASO 2019 AND BEYOND, DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE CONDITIONS AT LONGER LEAD TIMES. WITH THE PREDICTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN EL NINO, THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR HAWAII FOLLOWS HISTORICAL EL NINO IMPACTS THAT INDICATE STRONG CORRELATIONS BETWEEN EL NINO AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN WINTER AND SPRING. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS CONSISTENT WITH NMME DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS AND STATISTICAL TOOLS, INCLUDING CONSTRUCTED ANALOG, CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS, AND AN ENSO-OCN TOOL (THAT COMBINES THE IMPACTS OF EL NINO AND DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY), FOR FMA THROUGH MJJ 2019. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AMONG AVAILABLE FORECAST TOOLS IN JJA 2019 AND LONGER LEADS, SO EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2019 A65 71.7 0.4 B65 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2019 A60 72.0 0.5 B60 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2019 A60 72.9 0.5 B50 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2019 A55 74.0 0.4 B45 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2019 A45 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2019 A40 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2019 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2019 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2019 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2019 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2020 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2020 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2020 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2019 A65 72.3 0.4 B65 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2019 A60 73.0 0.4 B60 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2019 A60 74.3 0.5 B50 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2019 A55 76.0 0.5 B45 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2019 A45 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2019 A40 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2019 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2019 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2019 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2019 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2020 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2020 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2020 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2019 A60 73.8 0.4 B65 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2019 A55 74.8 0.4 B60 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2019 A55 76.3 0.4 B50 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2019 A50 78.2 0.4 B45 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2019 A45 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2019 A40 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2019 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2019 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2019 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2019 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2020 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2020 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2020 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2019 A55 72.1 0.5 B65 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2019 A50 72.8 0.5 B60 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2019 A50 74.2 0.5 B50 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2019 A45 76.0 0.5 B45 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2019 A40 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2019 A40 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2019 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2019 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2019 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2019 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2020 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2020 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2020 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9 FORECASTER: LUKE HE ANOMALIES ARE BASED ON THE 1981-2010 MEANS. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATED EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE PREDICTED PARAMETER WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIC IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULATE TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW NORMAL CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD, OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO, THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCES OF THE NEW SET NET MONTH, ON THU FEB 21, 2019. $$