Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST Mon Jan 31 2022 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEBRUARY 2022 The updated temperature and precipitation outlooks for February 2022 reflect recent dynamical model guidance from the GEFS and CFSv2, as well as current WPC week 1 outlooks and the CPC week 2 and week 3-4 outlooks. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently inactive. However the NCEP GEFS forecasts indicate possible emerging MJO activity over the Indian Ocean and progression across the Maritime Continent into the Western Pacific in the second week of February. An active MJO over the Maritime Continent could reinforce La Niña impacts. Persistent La Niña conditions over the Tropical Pacific Ocean continue to play a role in predicted climate conditions for North America. Short range dynamical model forecasts from the NCEP GEFS predict an increasingly positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the first two weeks of February, impacting the temperature outlook in week 2. Land surface soil moisture conditions were also consulted for the updated February outlook. The temperature outlook for February indicates increased chances of below normal temperatures for northern areas of the Pacific Northwest and Rocky Mountains into parts of the Northern Plains and western Great Lakes region, reflecting WPC temperature outlooks for the first week of the month, as well as a consolidation of GEFS and CFSv2 temperature forecasts for weeks 1 through 4. Possible below normal temperatures for parts of the Northern Tier are reinforced by the CPC Week 3-4 Outlook, as well as canonical La Niña impacts. A large area of equal chances of above, near and below normal temperatures for much of the Central Plains, as far south as northern Texas, is predicted as a result of forecasts of below normal temperatures in the first week of February followed by likely above normal temperatures by week 2, and weaker signals later in the month. Above normal temperatures are favored in the February Outlook for Central and Southern California and the Southwest, supported by consolidated dynamical model forecasts indicating increased chances of above normal temperatures following likely below normal temperatures at the start of the month. Above normal temperatures are favored from the Gulf Coast region northeast to eastern areas of the Midwest and eastward to the Atlantic Coast, reflecting temperature forecasts for early in the month, potentially associated with a positive NAO, and further supported by CFSv2 guidance for February. Inconsistencies in temperature tools for Alaska lead to most areas being forecast as equal chances of above, near and below normal temperatures. Above normal temperatures are favored for the North Slope, supported by the CFSv2 February forecast and decadal temperature trends. Below normal temperatures are favored for extreme southeastern Mainland Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle, consistent with a canonical La Niña pattern and the Week 3-4 Outlook. The precipitation outlook for February reflects the latest guidance for the month of February, with additional weight given to the first week of the month due to greater skill relative to longer leads. The outlook is consistent with canonical La Niña patterns in most regions with the exception of an indication of equal chances of above and below normal precipitation for much of the Gulf Coast region, where a consolidation of dynamical model forecasts slightly favors above normal precipitation, primarily due to precipitation early in the month, and La Niña impacts favor below normal. Above normal precipitation is favored from the Northern Rockies into parts of the Northern Plains, consistent with precipitation tools and outlooks for weeks 1 through 4. Above normal precipitation is favored from parts East Texas northeastward across much of the Midwest into western areas of the Northeast, supported by the precipitation outlooks for the first week of February and in part by the Week 3-4 Outlook. Probabilities for below normal precipitation are increased for much of California and across the Southwest, consistent with outlooks throughout the month and CFSv2 forecasts. Below normal precipitation continues to be favored for the Florida Peninsula, consistent with La Niña conditions and the Week 3-4 Outlook. Above normal precipitation is favored for northwestern Mainland Alaska, while below normal precipitation is slightly favored for the south coast of Mainland Alaska, supported by CFSv2 forecasts and consistent with La Niña conditions and the Week 3-4 Outlook. ------------------------ Previous Discussion Follows ------------------------- La Niña conditions persist across the equatorial Pacific, with persistent negative SST anomalies in recent weeks over much of the east-central Pacific Ocean. Convection continues to be suppressed near the Date Line. Low-level easterly winds are enhanced over parts of the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level westerly winds are enhanced across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The RMM-based Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index indicates MJO conditions have weakened, and there is no clear MJO signal in most dynamical model forecasts. The ECMWF and CFSv2 however forecast a potential reemergence of the active phase of the MJO in the western Pacific in the next couple weeks. Though La Niña is forecasted to persist into boreal spring, dynamical model forecasts for the next several weeks into the beginning of February are inconsistent with a canonical La Niña pattern. However, given uncertainty in subseasonal variability later in February, the La Niña base state and typical impacts of La Niña are reflected in the dynamical model temperature and precipitation forecasts for February and play a significant role in the February temperature and precipitation outlooks. The February 2022 monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks are based primarily on dynamical model forecast guidance from the North America Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and statistical forecast guidance, including the constructed analog, canonical correlation analysis, and ENSO-OCN tools. Both dynamical and statistical models are largely forced by persistent La Niña conditions. Although La Niña conditions are expected to transition to ENSO neutral conditions in the late spring, February climate conditions are expected to be impacted by La Niña. In addition, the outlooks for some areas of the forecast domain consider current land surface soil moisture and snow cover and nearby ocean surface temperatures. The February 2022 temperature outlook favors below-normal temperatures for the south coast of Alaska east of the Alaska Peninsula, southeastern Mainland Alaska, and the Alaska Panhandle, supported by dynamical model guidance from the NMME, as well as the consolidation of statistical and dynamical temperature tools. Below-normal temperatures are also favored for parts of Northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the northern High Plains, consistent with canonical La Niña impacts. Statistical guidance and the latest CFSv2 dynamical model forecasts suggest the potential for more extensive below-normal temperatures into the Northern Plains and Midwest region, reflecting potential impacts of La Niña. The potential for larger scale below-normal temperatures into the Midwest is also associated with the possible reemergence of Western Pacific MJO activity. This pattern of large-scale below-normal temperatures is inconsistent with the consolidated NMME forecast, as well as the consolidation of both statistical and dynamical model guidance, which favor above-normal temperatures for much of the central and eastern CONUS. The February outlook favors above-normal temperatures across much of the southwestern CONUS from Southern California across the Southern and Central Rockies into the Southern and Central Plains, supported by both NMME dynamical model forecasts and the consolidation. Above-normal temperatures are favored for parts of the Lower and Central Mississippi Valley, eastern areas of the Midwest, and the Eastern Seaboard, primarily supported by dynamical model forecasts from the NMME. Probabilities of above-normal temperatures are greatest, exceeding 50 percent, from parts of the Southwest along the Rio Grande Valley and Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula, as well as for much of the Northeast, where dynamical model forecasts are consistent. A large area of equal chances of below-, near-, and above-normal temperatures is predicted for much of the Northern Plains and western Great Lakes region, where there is inconsistency among temperature tools. The February outlook favors above-normal precipitation for northwestern Mainland Alaska and below-normal precipitation for the south coast of Mainland Alaska and parts of the northern Alaska Panhandle, supported by dynamical model forecasts and consistent with La Niña impacts. Dynamical models predict above-normal precipitation for parts of the Alaska Panhandle early in the month, resulting in a forecast of equal chances in the February outlook. Above-normal precipitation is favored for much of the Pacific Northwest eastward across the Northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, consistent with most dynamical and statistical model forecasts and canonical La Niña impacts. Above-normal precipitation is also likely from the Central Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward across most of the Great Lakes region, following canonical La Niña patterns and the consolidation of precipitation forecast tools. Below-normal precipitation is likely across the southern tier of the CONUS, including most of the Southwest, parts of the Southern Plains, the Gulf Coast, the southern Atlantic coast, and the Florida Peninsula. The February precipitation outlook generally reflects canonical precipitation patterns due to La Niña. Equal chances of below-, near-, and above-normal precipitation is predicted where there is greater uncertainty among precipitation tools. FORECASTER: Dan Collins The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 complete decades as the climate reference period. The probability anomalies for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. The next monthly outlook...for Mar ... will be issued on Thu Feb 17 2022 These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period. $$