Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 830AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FEBRUARY 2022 Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from zero degree Celsius to positive one half degree Celsius were observed over the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui, and the Big Island) during the previous week. For January through December 2021, rainfall total accumulations were: - Lihue Airport 36.30 inches (100 percent of normal) - Honolulu Airport 21.16 inches (129 percent of normal) - Kahului Airport 23.76 inches (147 percent of normal) - Hilo Airport 137.97 inches (115 percent of normal) The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict above average SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands through February 2022. This elevates the chances of above normal monthly mean air temperatures for Hawaii in February 2022. Above normal precipitation is favored for the Hawaiian Islands in February 2022, consistent with La Nina conditions and most dynamical and statistical models. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV Hilo A45 71.4 0.5 A60 5.0 8.4 11.1 Kahului A50 71.9 0.6 A60 0.9 1.1 1.8 Honolulu A60 73.3 0.5 A60 0.7 1.0 1.4 Lihue A60 71.7 0.6 A60 1.3 1.8 4.0 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FMA 2022 - FMA 2023 Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. La Nina conditions are now present across the Pacific Ocean, with below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the eastern and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies have shifted eastward to 140ºW and remain at depth, while negative anomalies have contracted to the eastern Pacific and remain persistent from about 200m to the surface. Low-level easterly wind anomalies were observed over part of the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies were evident over most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Nina conditions. La Nina is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring, with about 67 percent chance during March-May 2022, and transition to ENSO-neutral during April-June 2022 with about 51 percent chance. Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are forecast for the Hawaiian Islands from FMA 2022 to JJA 2022, consistent with dynamical model forecasts from the NMME. This seasonal temperature outlook for the Hawaiian Islands is also consistent with continuing La Nina conditions and decadal trends. The signal weakens at longer leads, therefore Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii beginning in JAS 2022 and thereafter. Enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation are forecast over the Hawaiian Islands from FMA 2022 to AMJ 2022, consistent with most dynamical and statistical model forecasts. The onset of wetter conditions in winter and persistence of wetter conditions into spring across the Hawaiian Islands is consistent with the impacts of La Nina conditions. Most tools favor below normal precipitation in JJA 2022. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models over the Hawaiian Islands in MJJ, as well as JAS 2022 and longer leads, equal chances (EC) for above, near or below normal precipitation are indicated. Hilo TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2022 A55 71.7 0.4 A60 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2022 A50 72.0 0.5 A50 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2022 A40 72.9 0.5 A40 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2022 A40 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2022 A40 75.2 0.4 B40 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2022 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2022 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2022 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2022 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2022 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2023 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2023 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2023 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5 Kahului TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2022 A55 72.3 0.4 A60 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2022 A50 73.0 0.4 A50 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2022 A40 74.3 0.5 A40 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2022 A40 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2022 A40 77.7 0.4 B40 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2022 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2022 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2022 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2022 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2022 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2023 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2023 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2023 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4 Honolulu TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2022 A60 73.8 0.4 A60 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2022 A55 74.8 0.4 A50 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2022 A50 76.3 0.4 A40 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2022 A45 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2022 A40 79.9 0.4 B40 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2022 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2022 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2022 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2022 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2022 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2023 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2023 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2023 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7 Lihue TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2022 A60 72.1 0.5 A60 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2022 A55 72.8 0.5 A50 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2022 A50 74.2 0.5 A40 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2022 A50 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2022 A40 77.7 0.4 B40 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2022 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2022 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2022 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2022 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2022 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2023 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2023 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2023 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9 FORECASTER: Luke He Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means. CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely. NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Feb 17, 2022. $$