Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022


30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MARCH 2022

The March 2022 outlooks are issued against the backdrop of an ongoing 
double-dip La Niña and an emerging Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) event. The 
Niño 3.4 index for the period November-December-January 2021-22 stood at -1.0 
degrees Celsius, which is similar in magnitude to that observed during the 
2020-21 winter season. Meanwhile, the magnitude of the Real-time Multivariate 
(RMM) based MJO index has increased during early February, with an enhancement 
of the intraseasonal signal noted across the Indian Ocean. Natural analog 
composites derived from the current El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and MJO 
states depict a 500-hPa flow pattern for the month of March consistent with the 
negative phase of the Pacific / North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. 
These composites indicate anomalous ridging over the Aleutians and adjacent 
areas of the North Pacific, troughing across the northwestern CONUS, and 
expansive ridging across most of the eastern and south-central CONUS. Dynamical 
guidance from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and North America 
Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) show very good agreement with the natural ENSO/MJO 
analogs in forecasting a negative PNA-like pattern for the month of March. This 
excellent consistency between dynamical and statistical guidance leads to 
higher than normal confidence in the March 2022 outlooks. 

Statistical and dynamical guidance are in good agreement in favoring above 
normal temperatures across most of the eastern and central CONUS. Probabilities 
of above normal temperatures exceed 60 percent for parts of the Southern 
Plains, where warm signals from dynamical model guidance are the strongest. 
High probabilities of above normal temperatures (greater than 50 percent) 
extend eastward to most of the Eastern Seaboard and northward to the eastern 
Great Lakes region, where MJO composites depict a strong warm signal. 
Conversely, below normal temperatures are favored for the northwestern CONUS 
and southeastern Alaska, consistent with the negative phase of the PNA. Below 
normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) also played a role in tilting the odds 
toward below normal temperatures across much of the south coast of Alaska. 

ENSO natural analogs and dynamical model guidance are in good agreement in 
depicting a wet signal for much of the east-central CONUS stretching from the 
Great Lakes region southward across the Ohio and Middle Mississippi valleys. 
MJO composites as well as multi-model guidance from the C3S also support a 
westward expansion of the wet signal, to include much of the Upper Mississippi 
Valley. Probabilities of above normal precipitation are greater than 50 percent 
from southern Michigan to western areas of the Ohio Valley, where ENSO 
composites and C3S guidance depict the strongest wet signals. Conversely, below 
normal precipitation is favored from the Southwest to the Central Plains as 
well as for much of the Southeast, typical of La Niña conditions. ENSO 
composites and dynamical model guidance generally support above normal 
precipitation for the northwestern CONUS. However, uncertainty is high across 
the West Coast, as MJO Composites favor a wetter solution farther to the south 
across southern California and a drier solution for the Pacific Northwest, in 
opposition to dynamical model guidance. The official March outlook depicts 
slightly elevated odds of above normal precipitation for the northwestern 
CONUS, consistent with the majority of dynamical model solutions. Equal chances 
of above, near, and below normal precipitation are indicated farther to the 
south across Southern California, where dynamical and statistical guidance 
conflict. ENSO/MJO composites depict enhanced westerly or southwesterly flow 
across western Mainland Alaska, suggestive of an active pattern. Therefore, 
above normal precipitation is favored for much of western Alaska, with support 
from C3S guidance. Statistical and dynamical model guidance are in good 
agreement in depicting a dry solution downstream across southeastern Alaska, 
where below normal precipitation is favored.

FORECASTER: Scott Handel

The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following
the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climate reference period.  The probability anomalies
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals.

An updated monthly outlook... for Mar will be issued on Mon February 28 2022

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period.
$$