Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MARCH 2022 The current state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in the negative phase with the latest weekly observed Niño 3.4 Index value standing at -0.8 degrees Celsius. Meanwhile, the magnitude of the Real-time Multivariate (RMM) based Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index has decreased in recent days, but still maintains a signal near the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. Composites from this combined ENSO/MJO state for the month of March depicts a 500-hPa flow pattern consistent with the negative phase of the Pacific / North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern and similar to that indicated by the previous March 2022 outlook issued on February 17 (herein referred to as the mid-month outlook). However, as we close out the month of February, short term dynamical model guidance is increasingly relied upon with the official 3-7 Day Outlooks from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), 8-14 Day Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), and Weeks 3-4 Outlooks from CPC forming the backbone of the updated March 2022 outlooks. These outlooks reveal a variable pattern for the month of March with changeable weather across large swathes of the country as the month progresses. Dynamical model guidance from the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), the Global Forecast System (GFS), the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) clearly indicate this variable pattern. The consensus of these dynamical models forecast ridging over the western two-thirds of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) early in the month quickly being replaced by a deep trough by mid-month with ridging developing downstream across the Eastern Seaboard. The CFS and GFS indicate the potential for a more zonally oriented pattern across much of the CONUS by the time we close out the month of March. Dynamical model guidance forecasts a strong ridge to build across much of Alaska during early to mid-March. However, the CFSv2 and GFS indicate the potential for increased troughing over southeastern parts of the state towards the end of the month. The updated March temperature outlooks indicate increased probabilities of above normal temperatures across much of the eastern and south-central CONUS. The greatest confidence for above normal temperatures is across the Florida Peninsula, where probabilities exceed 60 percent. This represents an eastward shift in the area of favored above normal temperatures relative to the mid-month outlook, due to the potential for deep troughing over the western CONUS by the middle of the month. This potential trough leads to an expansive area of favored below normal temperatures across much of the western and north-central CONUS. Probabilities of above normal temperatures are elevated upstream across western Alaska as a strong ridge builds during the first half of the month. Below normal temperatures are slightly favored for the Alaska Panhandle due to the potential for increased troughing during the latter half of the month. The updated March 2022 precipitation outlook is generally consistent with the negative phase of ENSO and similar to that depicted in the mid-month outlook. As a strong trough is forecast to develop across the western two-thirds of the CONUS by mid month, moist flow ahead of it favors above normal precipitation for much of the east-central CONUS and eventually to the Northeast. Above normal precipitation is also favored for the northwestern CONUS, due to an active pattern predicted early in the month coupled with likely mean cyclonic flow for the month as a whole. A tilt in the odds toward below normal precipitation is indicated across much of the Southern Tier of the CONUS, consistent with the consensus of dynamical model guidance and with La Niña composites. Above normal precipitation probabilities are enhanced for much of western and central Alaska, due to the potential for prevailing southwesterly mid-level flow. As a ridge builds across the Mainland early to mid-month, below normal precipitation is favored downstream of the ridge axis across the Panhandle. ******************************************************************************* ****** Previous mid-month discussion below ****** ******************************************************************************* The March 2022 outlooks are issued against the backdrop of an ongoing double-dip La Niña and an emerging Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) event. The Niño 3.4 index for the period November-December-January 2021-22 stood at -1.0 degrees Celsius, which is similar in magnitude to that observed during the 2020-21 winter season. Meanwhile, the magnitude of the Real-time Multivariate (RMM) based MJO index has increased during early February, with an enhancement of the intraseasonal signal noted across the Indian Ocean. Natural analog composites derived from the current El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and MJO states depict a 500-hPa flow pattern for the month of March consistent with the negative phase of the Pacific / North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. These composites indicate anomalous ridging over the Aleutians and adjacent areas of the North Pacific, troughing across the northwestern CONUS, and expansive ridging across most of the eastern and south-central CONUS. Dynamical guidance from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and North America Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) show very good agreement with the natural ENSO/MJO analogs in forecasting a negative PNA-like pattern for the month of March. This excellent consistency between dynamical and statistical guidance leads to higher than normal confidence in the March 2022 outlooks. Statistical and dynamical guidance are in good agreement in favoring above normal temperatures across most of the eastern and central CONUS. Probabilities of above normal temperatures exceed 60 percent for parts of the Southern Plains, where warm signals from dynamical model guidance are the strongest. High probabilities of above normal temperatures (greater than 50 percent) extend eastward to most of the Eastern Seaboard and northward to the eastern Great Lakes region, where MJO composites depict a strong warm signal. Conversely, below normal temperatures are favored for the northwestern CONUS and southeastern Alaska, consistent with the negative phase of the PNA. Below normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) also played a role in tilting the odds toward below normal temperatures across much of the south coast of Alaska. ENSO natural analogs and dynamical model guidance are in good agreement in depicting a wet signal for much of the east-central CONUS stretching from the Great Lakes region southward across the Ohio and Middle Mississippi valleys. MJO composites as well as multi-model guidance from the C3S also support a westward expansion of the wet signal, to include much of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Probabilities of above normal precipitation are greater than 50 percent from southern Michigan to western areas of the Ohio Valley, where ENSO composites and C3S guidance depict the strongest wet signals. Conversely, below normal precipitation is favored from the Southwest to the Central Plains as well as for much of the Southeast, typical of La Niña conditions. ENSO composites and dynamical model guidance generally support above normal precipitation for the northwestern CONUS. However, uncertainty is high across the West Coast, as MJO Composites favor a wetter solution farther to the south across southern California and a drier solution for the Pacific Northwest, in opposition to dynamical model guidance. The official March outlook depicts slightly elevated odds of above normal precipitation for the northwestern CONUS, consistent with the majority of dynamical model solutions. Equal chances of above, near, and below normal precipitation are indicated farther to the south across Southern California, where dynamical and statistical guidance conflict. ENSO/MJO composites depict enhanced westerly or southwesterly flow across western Mainland Alaska, suggestive of an active pattern. Therefore, above normal precipitation is favored for much of western Alaska, with support from C3S guidance. Statistical and dynamical model guidance are in good agreement in depicting a dry solution downstream across southeastern Alaska, where below normal precipitation is favored. FORECASTER: Scott Handel The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 complete decades as the climate reference period. The probability anomalies for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. The next monthly outlook...for Apr ... will be issued on Thu Mar 17 2022 These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period. $$