Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 830AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MARCH 2022 Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from zero degree Celsius to positive one degree Celsius were observed over the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui, and the Big Island) during the previous week. For January 2022, rainfall total accumulations were: - Lihue Airport 6.41 inches (231 percent of normal) - Honolulu Airport 6.34 inches (345 percent of normal) - Kahului Airport 0.08 inches (3 percent of normal) - Hilo Airport 1.20 inches (15 percent of normal) The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict above average SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands through March 2022. This elevates the chances of above normal monthly mean air temperatures for Hawaii in March 2022. Above normal precipitation is favored for the Hawaiian Islands in March 2022, consistent with La Nina conditions and most dynamical and statistical models. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV Hilo A60 72.0 0.6 A60 5.7 10.8 15.2 Kahului A60 72.9 0.5 A60 1.4 1.9 2.9 Honolulu A60 74.7 0.5 A60 0.6 0.8 1.9 Lihue A60 72.7 0.6 A60 1.9 2.6 3.6 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MAM 2022 - MAM 2023 Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. La Nina conditions are now present across the Pacific Ocean, with below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the eastern and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies have shifted eastward to 110ºW and remain at depth, while negative anomalies have contracted to the eastern Pacific and reside near the surface in the east-central Pacific. Low-level easterly wind anomalies were observed over parts of the western and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies were evident over the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Nina conditions. La Nina is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring, with about 77 percent chance during March-May 2022, and transition to ENSO-neutral during May-July 2022 with about 56 percent chance. Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are forecast for the Hawaiian Islands from MAM 2022 to JJA 2022, consistent with dynamical model forecasts from the NMME. This seasonal temperature outlook for the Hawaiian Islands is also consistent with continuing La Nina conditions and decadal trends. The signal weakens at longer leads, therefore Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii beginning in JAS 2022 and thereafter. Enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation are forecast over the Hawaiian Islands from MAM 2022 to AMJ 2022, consistent with most dynamical and statistical model forecasts. The onset of wetter conditions in winter and persistence of wetter conditions into spring across the Hawaiian Islands is consistent with the impacts of La Nina conditions. Most tools favor below normal precipitation from JJA to JAS 2022. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models over the Hawaiian Islands in MJJ, as well as ASO 2022 and longer leads, equal chances (EC) for above, near or below normal precipitation are indicated. Hilo TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2022 A55 72.0 0.5 A50 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2022 A50 72.9 0.5 A40 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2022 A40 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2022 A40 75.2 0.4 B40 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2022 EC 76.1 0.4 B40 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2022 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2022 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2022 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2022 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2023 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2023 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2023 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2023 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0 Kahului TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2022 A55 73.0 0.4 A50 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2022 A50 74.3 0.5 A40 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2022 A40 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2022 A40 77.7 0.4 B40 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2022 EC 79.0 0.4 B40 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2022 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2022 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2022 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2022 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2023 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2023 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2023 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2023 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6 Honolulu TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2022 A60 74.8 0.4 A50 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2022 A55 76.3 0.4 A40 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2022 A50 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2022 A40 79.9 0.4 B40 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2022 EC 81.3 0.4 B40 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2022 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2022 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2022 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2022 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2023 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2023 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2023 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2023 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0 Lihue TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2022 A60 72.8 0.5 A50 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2022 A55 74.2 0.5 A40 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2022 A50 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2022 A40 77.7 0.4 B40 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2022 EC 79.0 0.3 B40 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2022 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2022 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2022 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2022 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2023 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2023 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2023 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2023 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0 FORECASTER: Luke He Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means. CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely. NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Mar 17, 2022. $$