Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 830AM EDT Thu May 19 2022 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JUNE 2022 Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from zero to positive one half degree Celsius were observed over the northwestern islands (Kauai and Oahu), while zero to negative one half degree Celsius SST anomalies were evident over the southeastern islands (Maui and the Big Island) during the previous week. For January through April 2022, rainfall total accumulations were: - Lihue Airport 11.71 inches (83 percent of normal) - Honolulu Airport 6.82 inches (99 percent of normal) - Kahului Airport 0.47 inches (6 percent of normal) - Hilo Airport 27.81 inches (69 percent of normal) The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict near to below average SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands through June 2022. This elevates the chances of below normal monthly mean air temperatures over the southeastern islands (Maui and the Big Island) and Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures over the northwestern islands (Kauai and Oahu) in June 2022. Below normal precipitation is slightly favored for the Hawaiian Islands in June 2022, supported by most dynamical and statistical models. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV Hilo B40 75.4 0.4 B40 5.3 6.3 8.7 Kahului B40 78.0 0.5 B40 0.1 0.1 0.2 Honolulu EC 80.3 0.4 B40 0.1 0.2 0.3 Lihue EC 78.1 0.4 B40 1.1 1.3 1.6 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JJA 2022 - JJA 2023 Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. La Nina conditions are continuing across the Pacific Ocean, with below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Negative subsurface temperature anomalies prevail near the surface across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Positive subsurface anomalies are in the western and central Pacific, but remain at depth. Low-level easterly wind anomalies are evident over most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, while Upper-level westerly wind anomalies and an anomalous cyclonic couplet were observed over the central and east-central tropical Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Nina conditions. La Nina is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer, with about a 58 percent chance during August-October 2022, with a 61 percent chance through the autumn and early winter 2022. Enhanced probabilities for below normal temperatures are forecast for Hilo and Kahului from summer (JJA) to OND 2022, for Honolulu and Lihue from summer (JJA) to autumn (SON) 2022, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts from the NMME. The forecast signal weakens at longer leads, therefore Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for the Hawaiian Islands beginning in NDJ 2022 (for Hilo and KKahului) and in OND 2022 (for Honolulu and Lihue). Enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation are forecast over the Hawaiian Islands from summer (JJA) 2022 to autumn (SON) 2022, consistent with most dynamical and statistical model forecasts. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models over the Hawaiian Islands in OND 2022 and longer leads, equal chances (EC) for above, near or below normal precipitation are indicated. Hilo TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2022 B40 75.2 0.4 B40 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2022 B40 76.1 0.4 B50 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2022 B50 76.4 0.4 B50 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2022 B50 76.2 0.4 B40 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2022 B40 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2022 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2023 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2023 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2023 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2023 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2023 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2023 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2023 B50 75.2 0.4 B40 19.4 27.2 31.4 Kahului TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2022 B40 77.7 0.4 B40 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2022 B40 79.0 0.4 B50 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2022 B50 79.4 0.4 B50 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2022 B50 79.1 0.4 B40 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2022 B40 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2022 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2023 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2023 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2023 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2023 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2023 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2023 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2023 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 Honolulu TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2022 B40 79.9 0.4 B40 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2022 B50 81.3 0.4 B50 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2022 B50 81.7 0.4 B50 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2022 B40 81.4 0.4 B40 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2022 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2022 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2023 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2023 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2023 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2023 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2023 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2023 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2023 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 Lihue TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2022 B40 77.7 0.4 B40 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2022 B50 79.0 0.3 B50 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2022 B50 79.4 0.3 B50 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2022 B40 79.1 0.3 B40 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2022 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2022 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2023 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2023 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2023 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2023 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2023 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2023 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2023 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 FORECASTER: Luke He Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means. CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely. NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Jun 16, 2022. $$