PREPARE Pacific Drought and Flood Early Warning Workshop

Nadi, Fiji (14-25 July, 2024)


Workshop Objectives

The PREPARE Pacific Drought and Flood Early Warning Workshop aims to:

  • Collaborate with Pacific Islands' meteorological departments in subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) climate forecasting
  • Train their personnel on S2S climate forecast tools that are applied at the NOAA CPC International Desk to improve advance warnings of flood and drought conditions
  • Engage decision-makers to better understand their needs from early warning systems and co-develop climate forecast products to enhance the effectiveness of these services


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    Forecast Training and Stakeholder Engagement

    Item File Type Description/Note
    Software Install (Day 1)
    Software install guidance pdf Two-pager with install guidance on all software needed for training sessions
    Conda environment files zipped folder Zipped folder of files that list install packages for Windows, Mac, and Linux (to make sure packages don’t conflict)
    Software install sanity check ppt (slides) Instructions to test software was installed correctly
    GIS Training (Day 1)
    Introduction to GIS pdf (slides) Introduction to GIS as a software tool, QGIS version
    Practice on GIS intro pdf (slides) Guide to practice introduction materials in QGIS
    Vector analysis, geoprocessing pdf (slides) Summary of using vector analysis and geoprocessing analyses in GIS
    Practice on vector analysis pdf (slides) Guid to practice using vector analysis using QGIS
    Mapmaking in GIS pdf (slides) Summary of making maps in GIS
    Practice on mapmaking pdf (slides) Practice on making maps using QGIS
    Data for GIS practicals zipped folder Data for all of the QGIS practicals
    Subseasonal Outlooks (Day 2)
    Subseasonal forecast process, correction and calibration techniques ppt (slides) Overview of subseasonal forecast process at CPC International Desk, including techniques to post-process NWP subseasonal forecasts
    Practice on subseasonal forecast bias correction ppt (slides) Practice on generating subseasonal rainfall outlooks, including post-processing GEFS model
    Subseasonal zip file zipped folder Zipped folder with data for subseasonal practicals, as outlined in practice slides
    Calibrated GEFS subseasonal rainfall forecasts web page Subseasonal rainfall outlooks generated based on scripts in subseasonal practicals, terciles and extreme wet/dry conditions
    Consolidated MME Weighted subseasonal rainfall forecast web page Subseasonal rainfall outlooks using consolidated MME that is weighted using GROCS
    Seasonal Outlooks (Day 3)
    Logistic regression pdf (slides) Overview of using logistic regression as a calibration technique for seasonal GCM forecasts
    Precip data needed for logistic regression practical zipped folder Precipitation data needed for logistic regression practical session (also needed for intraseasonal practical)
    Logistic regression practical folder zipped folder Logistic regression practical folder, including necessary data and scripts
    Seasonal eval: GCM post-processing techniques pdf (slides) Comparison of bias correction techniques in multiple Pacific Island nations, emphasis on CCA
    Seasonal practical: CCA pdf (slides) Practical on using CCA as a bias correction technique
    Intraseasonal Outlooks (Onset, Cessation, Duration of Wet/Dry seasons) (Day 4)
    Intraseasonal forecast overview pdf (slides) Overview of methods to forecast intraseasonal rainfall, including onset, cessation and duration of wet/dry seasons
    Practice folders for intraseasonal sessions web page Includes onset, precip, shapefiles, colors, etc… materials for intraseasonal practice
    Software install helper pdf (slide) One pager with reminder on how to install wsl and renv for intraseasonal (and logistic regression) practicals
    Drought Monitors and Outlooks (Day 4-5)
    Drought introduction pdf (slides) Introduction to drought session, types of drought
    Drought monitor pdf (slides) Drought monitor at CPC overview
    Drought outlooks pdf (slides) Overview of drought outlook production at CPC
    Drought early warning system pdf (slides) Plans and brainstorming on development of a seamless drought early warning system
    Practice on drought outlook pdf (slides) Template to practice developing a drought outlook using CPC International Desk approach
    Drought practice materials zipped folder Additional practice materials to develop drought monitor and outlooks, referred to in above presentations
    Flood Outlooks with Machine Learning (Day 5)
    ML flood overview pdf (slides) Overview of using machine learning (ML) techniques to estimate and forecast floods based on streamflow
    Practice materials for ML flood forecasts zipped folder Data and scripts to make a flood outlook using ML tools
    Example outputs from practice material scripts zipped folder Example output data from ML flood scripts
    Stakeholder Workshop
    Presentation by Dr. Wassila Thiaw on PREPARE pdf (slides) Overview of this project’s efforts to support the Information is Power pillar of the PREPARE policy, including a goal to increase ownership of data and early warning system tools in the Pacific Islands to support anticipatory action
    Presentation by Andrew Horan on NOAA efforts in the early warnings space pdf (slides) Overview of broader NOAA efforts to enhance early warnings to support preparedness for extreme weather, including PREPARE and Weather Ready Nations, amongst other activities
    Presentation by Dr. Zewdu Segele on NOAA CPC International Desk Approach to Hazard Outlook Development pdf (slides) Overview of CPC International Desk approach to hazard outlook development and dissemination, focused on droughts and floods