NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The 2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook is an official product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The outlook is produced in collaboration with hurricane experts from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML). The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of America.

Interpretation of NOAA's Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook:
This outlook is a general guide to the expected overall activity during the ongoing hurricane season. It is not a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast, and it does not predict levels of activity for any particular location. And note that years with similar activity can have different societal impacts.

Preparedness:
Hurricane-related disasters can occur during any season, even for years with low overall activity. It only takes one hurricane (or tropical storm) to cause a disaster. It is crucial that residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions prepare for every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) through Ready.gov (English) and www.listo.gov (Spanish), the NHC, the Small Business Administration, and the American Red Cross all provide important hurricane preparedness information on their web sites.

NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions:
NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions. Hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as the hurricane approaches, and those patterns are usually only predictable when the storm is within several days of making landfall.

Nature of this outlook and the "likely" ranges of activity:
This outlook is probabilistic, meaning the stated “likely” ranges of activity have a certain likelihood of occurring. The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. Years with similar levels of activity can have dramatically different impacts.

This outlook is based on analyses of 1) predictions of large-scale factors known to influence seasonal hurricane activity, and 2) seasonal forecast models that directly predict seasonal hurricane activity. The outlook also considers the uncertainties inherent in such outlooks.

Sources of uncertainty in the seasonal outlooks:

1. Predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, which include El Niño and La Niña events and ENSO-neutral and their impacts on North Atlantic basin hurricane activity, is an ongoing scientific challenge facing scientists today. Such forecasts made during the spring generally have limited skill.
2. Model predictions of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), vertical wind shear of the horizontal wind, moisture, atmospheric stability, and other large-scale factors known to influence overall seasonal hurricane activity have limited skill this far in advance of the peak months (August-September-October) of the North Atlantic hurricane season.
3. Shorter-term weather patterns that are unpredictable on seasonal time scales can develop and persist for weeks or months, affecting seasonal hurricane activity.

2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Summary

a. Predicted Activity

NOAA's outlook for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season indicates that a below-normal season is the most likely outcome, with moderate chances for a near-normal season, and low probabilities that the season could be above-normal. The outlook calls for a 55% chance for a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance for an above-normal season. See the NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons for more information.

The 2026 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:

• 8-14 Named Storms
• 3-6 Hurricanes
• 1-3 Major Hurricanes
• Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 45-115% of the median

The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years with similar conditions . These expected ranges are centered below the 1991-2020 seasonal averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Most of the predicted activity is likely to occur during August-September-October (ASO), the peak months of the hurricane season.

The North Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st through November 30th. This outlook will be updated in early August to coincide with the onset of the peak months of the season (ASO).

b. Outlook Reasoning

• The most recent forecast from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center indicates El Niño conditions are likely through the hurricane season. During the peak months (ASO), the odds are highest for El Niño (98%), with very low probabilities for ENSO-neutral (2%), and almost no chance of a La Niña event occurring. During a high-activity era, El Niño is typically associated with near to below-average levels of hurricane activity.


• The set of conditions that have produced the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes which began in 1995 are likely to continue in 2026 but are not likely to be as strong as during many years in the last decade. These conditions include warmer sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and weaker trade winds in the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR), along with weaker vertical wind shear, and a conducive West African Monsoon. The oceanic component of these conditions is often referred to as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), while the ocean/atmosphere combined system is sometimes referred to as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). The MDR (10°N-20°N, 20°W-85°W) spans the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. Currently observed SSTs in the MDR are similar to those normally observed in late May. Trade winds are currently weaker than normal, which contributes to lower vertical wind shear though that is forecast to reverse throughout the season as the expected El Niño event evolves. The upper-level circulation within the West African Monsoon is near average, though monsoon rainfall is predicted to be shifted northward and be potentially above-average for the entire season, but displaced inland from the western coast of Africa.

DISCUSSION

NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 North Atlantic hurricane season indicates that a below-normal season is most likely (55% chance). The outlook also includes a moderate 35% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of an above-normal season. The 2026 North Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to produce (with 70% probability for each range) 8-14 named storms, of which 3-6 are expected to become hurricanes, and 1-3 of those are forecast to become major hurricanes. These ranges are centered below the 1991-2020 period averages of about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

The 2026 outlook for Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index indicates a 70% chance that the seasonal ACE range will be 45-115% of the median. According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value between 75.4% and 130% of the 1951-2020 median indicates a near-normal season. Values above (below) this range are associated with an above-normal (below-normal) season. The 2026 predicted ACE range is centered just above the cutoff between below-normal and near-normal, and the upper end of the range falls in the near-normal category. ACE is a measure of both the intensity and duration of named storms, computed by squaring the maximum wind speed at each 6-hour interval, then summing those squared values over the season.

If the 2026 North Atlantic hurricane season ends up being below-normal, it would mark only the second season in the last decade without above-normal activity. Since the current Atlantic high-activity era began in 1995, 22 of 31 (about 70%) seasons have had above-normal activity, and only 5 (17%) and 4 (14%) have had near- and below-normal activity, respectively, based on the 1951-2020 climatology. Also, 10 (almost half) of the above-normal years (thus 32% of the 31 years) have been hyperactive (ACE of 165% of median).

2. Science behind the Outlook

NOAA’s North Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlooks are based on predictions of the main atmospheric and oceanic factors, and their associated conditions known to influence seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity. These predictions are based on extensive monitoring, analysis, research activities, a suite of statistical prediction tools, and dynamical models. The dynamical model predictions come from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL) HiFLOR-S and SPEAR-MED models, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMET) GloSea6 model, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Seas5 model. ENSO forecasts are also provided from the NMME dynamical models which are compiled by NOAA’s CPC.

NOAA’s 2026 North Atlantic hurricane season outlook reflects the expectation of the following competing atmospheric and oceanic factors during ASO:

1. El Niño is expected , with an 81% chance of a moderate or stronger event during ASO. Moderate or stronger events are defined by Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value ≥ 1.0°C. El Niño conditions generally lead to less hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin.


2. Ongoing high-activity era conditions such as warmer SSTs and weaker tradewinds, though less amplified than recent years.


3. A neutral West African monsoon, but with high precipitation shifted northward and inland, a configuration that is not optimal to support tropical cyclone development.

1. El Niño likely
   
   The weekly relative SSTs are currently slightly above average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and the relative SST index for Niño 3.4 region is +0.5 °C. The Niño 3.4 index has shown a substantial warming trend since December 2025. The wind and outgoing longwave radiation patterns over the central Pacific are also reflecting a breakdown of the atmospheric response to last winter’s forcings of a weak La Niña.
   
   Looking forward, model-predicted SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region indicate El Niño conditions throughout the hurricane season. The dynamical model average indicates a moderate or stronger El Niño through the late summer, with a further amplification through autumn of 2026.
   
   The official NOAA ENSO outlook from May 2026 indicates a 98% chance that El Niño conditions will occur during the hurricane season, and a near 0% chance that La Niña conditions could be in place during the peak months (ASO) of the season. Therefore, the current hurricane season outlook reflects the expectation that the El Niño conditions will interfere with the ongoing set of conditions associated with the current high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes (discussed below). The ENSO outlook this year shows higher confidence than at the same point in 2025, and forecasts of El Niño or La Niña events often have higher confidence than that of ENSO-neutral. If the El Niño does not develop as quickly, as intensely, or the downstream circulation impacts are not as amplified as the current forecast indicates, then the season could end up with activity close to the upper-ends of the forecast ranges. If the El Niño becomes very strong in summer, and/or other conditions local to the Atlantic also become unsupportive of development, then the seasonal activity could be close to the lower end of the forecast ranges.
   
   Seasonal activity in El Niño years during high-activity eras have had approximately 7-15 named storms, 3-9 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes. ACE has had a large range from 55 to 165% of median. Some of the El Niño years also had very supportive conditions in the Atlantic (very warm SSTs, weak tradewinds, and conducive West African monsoon conditions) that counteracted detrimental El Niño factors, but we are not expecting such supportive conditions in the Atlantic during 2026, further supporting the outlook for lower levels of activity.


2. Predicted conditions within the MDR
   SSTs are currently above-average across the MDR with an area-averaged anomaly during April of +0.2 °C, which is slightly cooler than the value in April of 2025 but much lower than the +1.22°C value during 2024. Both the CFS and NMME models predict above-average SSTs during ASO across much of the MDR, though there are predicted pockets of near-normal and even below-normal SSTs. Among the subset of the NMME models used in the hybrid outlook, the predicted values of MDR SST anomalies during ASO range from +0.23°C to +0.59°C, with the multi-model ensemble spatial average being +0.42°C. The range of values is narrower than last year, and the average is slightly higher than 2025. The weak signal for warm SSTs in the Atlantic would be even smaller when considered against the global tropical mean, which is usually higher during El Niño events. Even though most models tend to have only modest skill in predicting the strength of the Atlantic SST anomalies this far in advance, the current model predictions are consistent with the ongoing warm phase of the AMV. SST anomalies across the North Atlantic basin are currently a mix of above- and below-normal, with an average of +0.27°C, and are predicted to stay above-normal at least through ASO.
   
   Two inter-related atmospheric features, also related to the warm phase of the AMO/AMV, are anomalous winds at mid-levels (850-hPa, 700-hPa, and 600-hPa) across the central and eastern tropical Atlantic and the strength of the West African monsoon system. The 850-hPa winds show no coherent pattern during the last 45 days, but do indicate weaker than normal trade winds. The outflow from the West African monsoon, as analyzed by 200-hPa velocity potential anomaly and divergent wind, is showing a normal circulation. That signal has varied significantly, though variance in that signal before the core of the West African monsoon season (July to September) is common. The axis of heaviest rain and position of the resultant African Easterly Jet (AEJ) is forecast to be displaced anomalously northward, but also likely to result in lower than normal rainfall across much of western Africa. Should the eastern part of the monsoon be displaced northward, waves moving off of Africa could entrain dry air before they exit the continent, making development less likely.
   
   The NOAA CFS and NMME models also predict above-normal vertical wind shear over the MDR during ASO. This is likely associated with the model predictions of a moderate or stronger El Niño that could overwhelm any locally favorable condition (e.g. warmer Atlantic basin sea-surface temperatures and weak tradewinds).


3. Factors contributing to uncertainty
   Uncertainties in the 2026 outlook are rooted in a few factors. El Niño conditions are expected, but could develop slightly later than currently anticipated or with a lower strength. These weaker conditions could give a window for activity like other El Niño years (such as 2002 or 2018), which experienced higher levels of tropical activity with catastrophic impacts. Even in years with relatively low levels of activity, such as 2015, it only takes one storm to cause tragic consequences (e.g., Hurricane Joaquin in 2015 or Hurricane Betsy in 1965).
   
   Additionally, the conditions across western Africa could be more supportive of tropical development than currently forecast, and the conducive local conditions in the Atlantic basin could overwhelm the remote influences from the expected El Niño. Analysis of the importance of SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region versus the MDR show that the MDR has become slightly more influential in recent years. Should local conditions dominate the remote forcing, the activity could be nearer to the upper ends of the outlook ranges.

• Matt Rosencrans, Physical Scientist; Matthew.Rosencrans{at}noaa.gov
• Dr. Hui Wang, Meteorologist; Hui.Wang{at}noaa.gov
• Dr. Daniel Harnos, Meteorologist; Daniel.Harnos{at}noaa.gov
• Lindsey Long, Meteorologist; Lindsey.Long{at}noaa.gov
• Nicholas Novella, Meteorologist; Nicholas.Novella{at}noaa.gov

• Eric Blake, Senior Hurricane Specialist; Eric.S.Blake{at}noaa.gov
• Dr. Richard Pasch, Senior Hurricane Specialist; Richard.J.Pasch{at}noaa.gov

• Stanley Goldenberg, Meteorologist; Stanley.Goldenberg{at}noaa.gov
• Dr. Hosmay Lopez, Oceanographer; Hosmay.Lopez{at}noaa.gov