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HOME> Outreach > Climate Diagnostics & Prediction Workshop

NOAA's 43rd Climate Diagnostics & Prediction Workshop

Santa Barbara, California,
23–25 October 2018

Oral session program

Tuesday, October 23, 2018
07:30 – 09:30 REGISTRATION
08:30 – 09:00 Welcoming Remarks – David DeWitt, Director, CPC; Professor Emeritus Joel Michaelsen, UCSB
09:00 – 09:30 Recent Progress on Improving S2S Prediction and Monitoring at CPC and S2S Prediction Challenges for the Community
David DeWitt, Climate Prediction Center
Session 1: Improved Understanding of the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System Chair: David Dewitt, CP
09:30 – 09:50 A Hybrid Dynamic-Statistical Approach to Link Predictive Understanding to Improve Seasonal Prediction of Rainfall Anomalies at the Regional Scale (INVITED)
Rong Fu1, Nelon Fernando2, Sudip Chakraborty1, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, UCLA1, Texas Water Development Board2
09:50 – 10:10 False Alarms in CFSv2 ENSO Predictions
Wanqiu Wang, CPC/NCEP
10:10 – 10:30 ENSO Variability Since 1980 Reconsidered
Klaus Wolter, Tao Zhang, Judith Perlwitz, Martin Hoerling, Andrew Hoell, Jon Eischeid, University of Colorado, Boulder & NOAA-ESRL-PSD
10:30 – 10:50 BREAK (20 mins)
Session 2: Improved Understanding of the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System (continued) Chair: Leila Carvalho, UCSB
10:50 – 11:10 Mechanisms for the Formation of Super El Niños
Tim Li, University of Hawaii.
11:10 – 11:30 The influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the eastern Andes low-level jet and precipitation in South America
Charles Jones, University of California at Santa Barbara
11:30 – 11:50 Enhanced Ocean Monitoring Products Using Ensemble Ocean Reanalyses
Yan Xue1, C. Wen1,2, A. Kumar1, E. Becker1,2, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC1, Innovim LLC
11:50 – 12:10 Untangling Seasonal Predictions over California during 2015/16 El Nino and the Parable of Blind Men and an Elephant: What next?
Arun Kumar and Mingyue Chen, CPC/NCEP
12:10 – 13:30 LUNCH (1 hour 20 mins)
Session 3: Improved Understanding of the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System (continued)
Chair: Muthuvel Chelliah, CPC
13:30 – 13:50 Water Vapor Budget in Atmospheric Rivers: A Multi-Model Evaluation
Bin Guan, Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, UCLA; Duane E.Waliser, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, and F. Martin Ralph, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD
13:50 – 14:10 Using the Onset Dynamics to Understand the ENSO Complexity
Jin-Yi Yu, University of California, Irvine
14:10 – 14:30 Subsurface ocean biases in climate models and its implications in the simulated interannual variability; a case study for Indian Ocean
Shikha Singh, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India
14:30 – 15:00 BREAK (30 mins)
Session 4: IDSS-Impact Decision Support Services Chair: Greg Husak, UCSB
15:00 – 15:20 Advanced Observing Systems for Emergency Response and Integrated Water Management (INVITED)
Angelique Fabbiani-Leon, California Department of Water Resources, Division of Flood Management, Hydrology and Flood Operations Office
15:20 – 15:40 More Talk, Better Climate Products: The Fruits of CPC and NWS Alaska Collaboration, 2013-2018
Rick Thoman, NOAA/NWS Alaska Region
15:40 – 16:00 Employing Multiple Drought Indices for Global Decision Support
Justyn D. Jackson and Raymond B. Kiess, 14 Weather Squadron, USAF
16:00 – 16:20 Towards Increased Utilization of Weather Forecast Products in Agriculture
Aston Chipanshi, Mark Berry, Marilee Pregitzer and Hai Lin, Agroclimate, Geomatics and Earth Observation, Science & Technology Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
16:20 – 16:40 Overview of Drought GIS Techniques on
Steve Ansari, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information
16:40 – 17:00 NWS Regional and Local Climate – Informed Decision Support Services
Marina Timofeyeva, Fiona Horsfall, Jenna Meyers, and Viviane Silva, NOAA NWS AFSO Climate Services Branch
Wednesday, October 24, 2018
08:00 - 09:00 REGISTRATION
Session 5: Prospects for Improved Understanding, Prediction, and Simulation of Climate Variability Chair: Charles Jones, UCSB
08:30 – 08:50 Diagnosing Sources of Operational Forecast Model Errors in Tropical-Extratropical Interactions (INVITED)
Juliana Dias, George Kiladis, and Maria Gehne, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/PSD
08:50 – 09:10 Weather regime Diagnostic Tools for Wintertime Sub-Seasonal Ensemble Forecasts
Andrew W. Robertson, Nicolas Vigaud, Jing Yuan, Michael Tippett, IRI, Columbia University
09:10 – 09:30 Improve CFS Week 3~4 Precipitation and 2m Temperature Forecasts With Neural Network Technique
Yun Fan1, Chung-Yu Wu1, Jon Gottschalck1 and Vladimir Krasnopolsky2, NOAA/NCEP/CPC1 and NOAA/NCEP/EMC2.
09:30 – 09:50 Selective Monsoon-ENSO Interaction: Active Role of the Southeast Asian Monsoon
Song Yang, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou, China
09:50 – 10:10 The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX)
Kathy Pegion, George Mason University & Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
10:10 – 10:30 BREAK (20-mins)
Session 6: Prospects for Improved Understanding, Prediction, and Simulation of Climate Variability (continued)
Chair: Arun Kumar, CPC
10:30 – 10:50 MJO Predictive Skill and Impacts in the Navy Earth System Model
Matthew Adam Janiga, Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division
10:50 – 11:10 Experimental Subseasonal Forecasting of Atmospheric Rivers over the Western U.S. During Winter 2017-2018 and 2018-2019
Michael J. DeFlorio, NASA JPL/CalTech
11:10 – 11:30 Recent Developments and Ongoing Challenges in Operational Seasonal Prediction at CPC
Stephen Baxter, CPC/NCEP
11:30 – 11:50 Prospects for Year 2 Climate Forecasts with Useful Skill
Matthew Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/PSD
11:50 – 12:10 The Effect of the Mean Bias Removal on MJO Forecast Skill
Yun-Lan Chen, Wanqiu Wang, Taiwan Central Weather Bureau, NOAA/NCEP/CPC
12:10 – 13:20 LUNCH (1 hour 10 mins)
Session 7: Tony Barnston Tribute Chair: Mike Halpert, CPC
13:20 – 13:30 Working with Tony Barnston
Huug van den Dool, Innovim/CPC (Remote Presentation)
13:30 – 13:40 Climate Prediction and Climate Service for Hawaii and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI): Anthony Barnston's contribution
13:40 – 13:50 The Evolution of IRI’s Seasonal Forecast System under Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston
Andrew W. Robertson, IRI, Columbia University
13:50 – 14:00 Understanding Skill Scores
Mike Tippett, Columbia University
14:00 – 14:20 Staying happy and motivated in the face of modest inherent climate predictability
Tony Barnston, IRI
14:20 – 14:50 BREAK (30 Minutes)
Session 8: Climate variability and prediction in relation to the hydrologic cycle and in particular Western water resources. Chair: Bin Guan, JPL
14:50 – 15:10 Are Dynamical Sub-Seasonal Scale Forecasts Useful for Predicting Extreme Precipitation and Heat Wave Events in California and Nevada?
Shraddhanand Shukla, University of California, Santa Barbara
15:10 – 15:30 ENSO Teleconnections to Western Precipitation in a Non-Stationary Climate
Alexander Gershunov, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD
15:30 – 15:50 Evaluation of the SubX Reforecast Skill under Real-time Considerations
15:50 – 16:10 S2S Predictability of US West Coast Atmospheric Ridging Events
Peter Gibson, JPL/CalTech
16:10 – 16:30 Climate Variability, Climate Change, and the Risk of Extreme 'Megadrought'
Samantha Stevenson, Jonathan Overpeck, Sloan Coats, Bette Otto-Bliesner, John Fasullo, Toby Ault, and Julia Cole. UC Santa Barbara, U. Michigan, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Cornell University, and U. Michigan
16:30 – 16:50 Demystifying Satellite Rainfall Products: Strengths, Weakness, and Comparisons with Traditional In-Situ Observations
Pete Peterson, Climate Hazards Center, UCSB
18:30 – 21:30 BANQUET
Speaker: Dr. Marion Wittmann, Executive Director, Santa Cruz Island Reserve, UCSB Natural Reserve System
Thursday, October 25, 2018
Session 9: Observation, Prediction and Attribution of Recent High Impact Weather and Climate Events, and Implication for Extreme Precipitation and Temperatures, Heat/Cold Waves, Droughts and Wildfires Chair: Stephen Baxter, CPC
08:30 – 08:50 North America's winter circulation has changed, but for how long?(INVITED)
Simon S-Y Wang, Utah State University
08:50 – 09:10 Overview of the 2017–18 La Nina and El Nino Watch in mid-2018
Michelle L'Heureux, CPC/NCEP
09:10 – 09:30 Probabilistic Drought Prediction over the Conterminous United States based on the North American Multi Model Ensemble
Kingtse C. Mo and Dennis P Lettenmaier, CPC/NCEP and UCLA
09:30 – 09:50 Predictability of U.S. Northern Great Plains Summertime Precipitation Extremes
Andrew Hoell1, Klaus Wolter1, Flavio Lehner2, Judith Perlwitz 1, Jon Eischeid 1, NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division1, National Center for Atmospheric Research2
09:50 – 10:10 The Evolution and Status of the Northern Plains Drought and the Ongoing Southern Drought
Muthuvel Chelliah, CPC/NCEP
10:10 – 10:30 BREAK (20 mins)
Session 10: Observation, Prediction and Attribution of Recent High Impact Weather and Climate Events, and Implication for Extreme Precipitation and Temperatures, Heat/Cold Waves, Droughts and Wildfires (continued) Chair: Shrad Shukla, UCSB
10:30 – 10:50 Changes in Frequency of High-Impact Precipitation Accumulations in a Warming Climate: the Roles of Moisture, Circulation, and Duration
Jesse Norris, UCLA
10:50 – 11:10 Water Cycle in the Subtropical North Atlantic, Sea Surface Salinity, and its Implication for Extreme Precipitation Events in the US Midwest
Laifang Li, Raymond W. Schmitt, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Adwait Sahasrabhojanee, Chi Zhang, and Qiuhong Tang, Duke University, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; Northeastern University; Chinese Academy of Science
11:10 – 11:30 The Floods in Equatorial East Africa during the MAM 2018 Rainfall Season
Wassila Thiaw, Climate Prediction Center
11:30 – 11:50 A Climate Hazards Perspective on Attributing and Predicting ENSO-Related Droughts
Chris Funk, Shrad Shukla, Laura Harrison, Gregory Husak, Catherine Pomposi and Frank Davenport, US Geological Survey, UC Santa Barbara Climate Hazards Group
11:50 – 12:10 Santa Ana Events in Southern California: Global Scale Teleconnections and Potential S2S Predictability
Tom Murphree, Emily Szasz, and Kellen Jones, Dept. of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943-5114
12:10 – 13:30 LUNCH (1 hour 20 mins)
Session 11: Improving Models and Forecasts Chair: Chris Funk, UCSB
13:30 – 13:50 Multi-Year Prediction of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Zhuo Wang and Chuan-Chieh Chang, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
13:50 – 14:10 Joined CanSIPS-CFSv2 seasonal forecasts
Marko Markovic, Environment and Climate Change, Canada
14:10 – 14:30 An Assessment of Predictability and Prediction of NCEP GEFS for Subseasonal Forecast
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NCEP/EMC
14:30 – 14:50 The Development of the next generation NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
Xiaqiong Zhou, Yuejian Zhu and Dingchen Hou, EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
14:50 – 15:10 Development of consistent CPC sub-monthly and monthly forecasts
Peitao Peng, Mike Halpert, Stephen Baxter and Mike Charles, NOAA/NCEP/CPC
15:10 – 15:40 Coffee Break (30 mins)
Session 12: Improving Observational Data Sets Chair: Michelle LHeureux, CPC
15:40 – 16:00 The Aleutian Low – Beaufort Sea Anticyclone: A new climate index for seasonal melt of the Pacific Arctic cryosphere
Christopher Cox, CIRES/NOAA
16:00 – 16:20 Enhancing the Monitoring of Global Precipitation with the Second Generation CMORPH Integrated Satellite Estimates
Pingping Xie, Robert Joyce, and Shaorong Wu, CPC/NCEP
16:20 – 16:40 Recent slow melt of summer Arctic sea ice due to tropical Pacific SST changes
Ian Baxter, Qinghua Ding, Axel Schweiger, Bradley Markle1, Daniel Topal, & Jian Lu
16:40 – 17:00 How Southern California's Winter Storms go South (Rather than North)
Jonathan Mitchell, UCLA