Atlantic Hurricanes/ACE and SST/Large-Scale Circulation

Variable	SST		U200 - U850		200-hPa Streamfunction		200-hPa Velicity Potential
	Observation	Hindcast	Observation	Hindcast	Observation	Hindcast	Observation	Hindcast
Hurricane
ACE Index

Lead-Lag Correlation (SST, ASO Hurricane/ACE)
Observation 1981-2006

Index	Number of Hurricane (ASO)		ACE Index (ASO)
	Linear trend	Detrended	Linear trend	Detrended
Monthly SST
Seasonal SST

*Correlation coefficients were calculated with either linear trend time series of
observed number of hurricanes and ACE index or detrended time series.
The observed ACE index was provided by Lindsey.

       Observed preseason SST vs. CFS predicted ASO SST:
            Correlations with hurricane linear trend are compariable.
            Correlation with hurricane interannual change is higher in CFS than that in OBS. The lagged relationship is weaker than the simultaneous one. Hurricane forecast using CFS predicted ASO SST should be better than using preseason observed SST.